How fast are major automakers going all-electric? Not fast enough

A growing number of major automakers have voluntarily announced electrification goals for all or part of their fleet over the next decade.

Some even aim to go faster than required by regional regulations. Although these are not binding commitments, they can reflect the future vision and willingness of manufacturers to decarbonize vehicle fleets.

The ambition of these goals can be gauged by several factors, including timing, geographic coverage, and type of technology.

The figure below summarizes the announced electric vehicle (EV) targets for light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including passenger cars and light-duty vehicles, by leading manufacturers in six major markets: China, European Union, India, Japan, Korea and the United States. United States.

These six markets account for approximately 80% of total annual global LCV sales, and the major manufacturers account for approximately 95% of these sales, or approximately 76% of total annual global automotive sales.

For manufacturers who have announced different EV targets for each region, we have normalized the regional targets based on sales in the region. For manufacturers that have multi-period goals, the figure primarily shows the most ambitious sales share goals.

Of the 23 major automakers we assessed, Tesla is unique because it already produces only battery-electric vehicles. Of the rest, 19 manufacturers have publicly announced targets for electric vehicles. Volvo has the most ambitious target of 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) market share for LCVs by 2030. We define ZEVs as those that produce no harmful emissions at the tailpipe.

Europe and United States

Two leading European automaker groups, VW and Stellantis, are more ambitious in their commitments in Europe than elsewhere and focus on passenger cars, rather than the broader LCV segment that includes light commercial vehicles.

Among the multiple VW Group brands, VW has a target of 70% ZEV sales by 2030 and 100% ZEV sales by 2033 for passenger cars in Europe, but targets for the US and China are only 50% ZEV by 2030.

Similarly, Audi’s 100% ZEV target by 2035 excludes China, and Skoda’s and Porsche’s targets of 60% and 80% by 2030, respectively, relate only to LCV sales in China. Europe. Therefore, the VW Group’s aggregate targets are 34% by 2030 and 52% by 2035.

Stellantis has a target of 100% ZEV by 2030 in Europe for the passenger car segment and only a target of 50% ZEV by 2030 in the US for the LCV segment; these two regional targets lead to an overall global target of 69% ZEV by 2030.

Renault has ZEV sales targets only in Europe, where it markets 90% of its LCVs: 100% ZEV by 2030 for Renault and 100% ZEV by 2035 for Dacia.

BMW has a more ambitious target for its Mini – 100% ZEV by 2035 – compared to the overall BMW Group commitment of 50% ZEV by 2030.

Mercedes-Benz is one of the signatories of the COP26 declaration and will therefore work on 100% ZEV by 2035 in the LCV segment in the main markets. The company also said it would aim to go all-electric by 2030, “where market conditions permit”.

GM and Ford, the two US automakers, are both signatories to the COP26 declaration and will therefore work towards a full ZEV transition in major automotive markets by 2035.

China and India

Chinese automakers – BYD, Great Wall, Geely, SAIC and Changan – all count plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in their targets. BYD has only produced battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids since March 2022.

The goals are mostly short-term for other manufacturers, as China’s electrification goal and policies are piecemeal and short-term, and the current national electrification goal is 20% by 2025. Nevertheless, the Chinese LCV market has already exceeded this target with 24% of electric vehicles (19% ZEV) sold from January to September 2022, according to data from Marklines.

Tata Motors recently announced a more ambitious target for passenger cars – 50% ZEV by 2030 – and it mainly covers sales in India. Its subsidiary, Jaguar Land Rover, has signed the COP26 declaration.

Japan and Korea

Japanese and Korean automakers are more cautious in their announcements, and most of them are more ambitious with their targets in Europe than elsewhere.

Toyota previously included hybrids in its global electrification plan, but recently updated its target for the EU market to target only new ZEV sales by 2035. a poor ZEV sales target globally, as only 12% of Toyota’s sales are in the European Union.

Nissan has a target of 40% ZEV by 2030, but only for its sales in the United States. Nissan also has a global target of 50% by 2030, but that includes conventional hybrids and so isn’t even counted as an EV target. Mazda has announced a global goal of 100% “electrified” vehicles by 2030, but only 25% of sales will be ZEVs.

Honda has a goal of 100% ZEV worldwide by 2040 and a relatively more ambitious goal of 80% ZEV in Europe by 2035. Honda also recently released an EV expansion strategy, but it does not does not include any reinforcement of the ZEV objective.

Hyundai-Kia also has a more ambitious target in Europe, 100% ZEV by 2035, but its sales in Europe are only 18% of its LCV sales in major automotive markets; for the rest of its markets, the company only has a target of 100% ZEV by 2040.

Suzuki and Mitsubishi have not yet announced targets. The Subaru target is not counted because it includes conventional hybrids.

What it all means

If automakers meet the targets outlined above, that equates to around 31% electric vehicles by 2030 and 55% by 2035 in the six major auto markets. The figures rise to 29% by 2030 and 52% by 2035 if LDV sales from other manufacturers beyond these 23 manufacturers are taken into account.

That’s still a far cry from the 90% ZEV for new sales by 2035 in key automotive markets that we’ve shown could put the global vehicle fleet on a 2°C compatible trajectory. Nevertheless, manufacturers’ announcements are expected to evolve as more ambitious policies to force electric vehicles develop in regions other than Europe.

As this global comparison reflects, manufacturers are adapting their product plans in Europe in response to the Fit For 55 regulatory package, which calls for a 100% reduction in CO2 emissions.2 or a full transition to ZEV by 2035.

Given this, we might expect more ambitious global announcements if other major vehicle markets such as the United States and China establish regulations to accelerate ZEV supply.

Also, publicly announcing a goal is only a first step. Tracking subsequent actions such as investment in ZEVs and progress in ZEV adoption is essential to ensure that these announcements are not just empty rhetoric.

This article was originally published by the International Council on Clean Transportation. To read the original version, click here.

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