17% of new car sales in Germany fully electric, 32% have a plug
It seems that the German car market has bottomed out and is growing again. October brought a solid 17% increase in sales, but that still wasn’t enough to lift the year-to-date (YTD) numbers out of red (-6% YoY). Sales of fully electric vehicles (VEBs) were in line with the overall market, increasing 17% year-on-year (YoY). There were 35,781 BEV registrations last month, representing 17% of the overall market. By contrast, plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) jumped 35%, its highest growth rate since August 2021. Expect that number to rise further in the last two months of the year. There should be a sales rush in December, as next year PHEVs will no longer be eligible for EV incentives. Either way, PHEVs had 32,064 registrations in October, or 15% of the total car market.
Plug-in vehicle share of 32% in October maintained the year-to-date score at 29% (16% BEV). A 30 % result by the end of the year seems not only possible, but probable.
The German plugin market is known for its surprises, and October brought another. After a close race with the Fiat 500e, the Ford Kuga PHEV (European spec Ford Escape) won the title of bestseller in October!
And with the PHEV incentives coming to an end, expect the compact Ford to continue to show strong performance over the next two months. While it probably won’t win more best-selling titles this year, as BEVs will also get fewer incentives from January 1, meaning brands like Tesla, Volkswagen, possibly Opel and others will flood the German plugin market in recent years. two months of the year, particularly in December. Many different EVs will be battling to take advantage of the 2022 version of the incentives, so expect a high number of pre-registered units sitting on dealer lots in January waiting for a buyer, and a wider hangover in the future. during the first quarter of 2023….
In the particular case of Tesla, this is the main reason why it focuses its European deliveries on Germany, even at the cost of starving other European markets.
But back to the October results, we have another surprise in last place on the podium. The VW ID.3 recorded 2,160 registrations, its best result since September 2021. Expect a peak month for the sedan next December.
But it wasn’t just the ID.3 that did well for Volkswagen, as the VW ID.4 ended the month in 5th position, with 1,701 deliveries. Moreover, the Spanish Cupra Formentor PHEV was 4th, with 1,942 units.
Another surprise of sorts is the fact that both Teslas finished the first month of this quarter in the top 10. The Model Y finished at No. 6, with 1,622 deliveries, and the Model 3 finished at No. 7, with 1,563 deliveries. This is their best first month of the quarter in Germany.
Does that mean the two will get a record result in December?
Well… there are good arguments to be had on both sides. For one thing, these early results have more to do with allocation policies than measuring demand — because Tesla shipped boats from Giga Shanghai in the final weeks of last quarter, vehicles hit Europe earlier than usual. It is natural that these units ended up being recorded earlier (the first month of the quarter) than later.
As for the Model Y, due to the ramp-up of Giga Berlin production and Tesla’s prioritization of the German market, they naturally have more units available for delivery in Germany from the start of the quarter.
BUT – with these units being delivered earlier, it will all depend on demand and how many pre-registrations Tesla is willing to register this quarter to see how many units Tesla will deliver to Germany over the next two months. Record month? Maybe, but at this point, honestly, I don’t know. To be continued.
In 8th we have the Opel Mokka EV, with a record 1,531 registrations, while in #10 we have a tie between two plug-in hybrids which posted impressive results last month. The Mercedes A250e PHEV and BMW 3 Series PHEV recorded 1,263 units each, with the Mercedes achieving its best result in 17 months while the BMW achieved its best result in over two years. Expect both models to improve further over the next two months, taking advantage of the end of derivative incentives sales rush.
The second half of the table also saw other models shine, such as the No. 14 VW Tiguan PHEV which achieved its best performance ever, 1,132 registrations. The German marque is getting all it can out of the compact SUV before it’s too late (end of incentives), so expect December to be an even bigger month for the Tiguan.
But there were also record-breaking BEVs, like the #19 Renault Megane EV with 1,076 registrations. The French marque hopes to replicate at least some of the success the Renault Zoe once had across the Rhine. The Polestar 2 joined the table, in #20, thanks to a record 1,073 registrations. This latest result signals Volvo’s renewed confidence in BEVs. In addition to this record and the presence in the top 20 of the Swede occasional cousin, its own BEV models also hit record highs in October. The sporty C40 EV obtained 347 registrations, while the most edgy XC40 EV had 459 deliveries.
Outside of the top 20, there’s a lot to talk about. In addition to the good results of the Mini Cooper EV (1,019 registrations) and the Audi Q4 e-tron (1,031 registrations), we should also mention the first full month of deliveries of the competitor MG 4. With 433 registrations, c is undoubtedly a strong candidate for a top 20 presence next year. We should also celebrate a record score for the BMW i4 in its home market… 403 registrations. Yes, so low. Perhaps BMW is looking to extract all it can from the PHEV versions of the 3 Series before it starts delivering the i4 in relevant volumes next year?
But even so… over the same period, Mercedes had three BEV models outselling the i4, with the EQA scoring 780 registrations (a record for the new year), the EQB getting a record 650 registrations, and even the former EQC registered 524 units. … in addition to a wide range of Mercedes PHEVs.
Admittedly, the brand with the three-pointed star also has its problems – for example, the highly anticipated EQE only had 300 deliveries last month, almost four times less than the category leader Audi e-tron (1,141 units) – but it looks like Mercedes has a more consistent lineup for the upcoming BEV-heavy 2023 German market.
Or of course, the next BMW iX1 crossover could change all that… (fingers crossed that this is the case).
Regarding the 2022 painting, there was plenty to talk about. Thanks to a great month of October, the Ford Kuga PHEV overtook the Tesla Model 3 and climbed to the last place of the podium, but with less than 20 units separating them, anything can happen.
The same can be said of the Fiat 500e #2. While the #1 Tesla Model Y is untouchable, the 500e’s 2,255 unit advantage over the US sedan might not be enough to retain the silver medal. Depending on the allocation policy of the American brand, we could still have a surprise result in December which allows Tesla to have models in the first two positions… German vehicle market plug-in.
Elsewhere, the Volkswagen Group continued to recover from a slow first half. The VW ID.3 jumped two places to 7th, while the sporty Cupra Formentor PHEV is now 5th. Further down, the Skoda Enyaq was in 11th place, while the veteran Audi e-tron reaffirmed its leadership in the full-size class by moving up one position, to 13th place. It’s an impressive performance when you know that the big Audi will soon be heavily revised, even having the right to a new name: Audi Q8 e-tron.
In the second half of the table, there is another pattern that progresses, with the design icon Hyundai Ioniq 5 climbs to 12th place. He enjoyed the slow march of the BMW i3 to EV Heaven, a place where fast chargers are plentiful, reliable, use renewable energy, and are not blocked by ICE vehicles!
/Earth: Given that PHEVs will lose their incentives next year, and therefore their market share will drop significantly, it is interesting to see that out of the four plug-in hybrid models in this top 20, only one has a replacement directly from the BEV (BMW 3 Series PHEV -> BMW i4). And even so, the i4 doesn’t have the all-important station wagon body. But for the other three PHEVs (Ford Kuga PHEV, Cupra Formentor PHEV, Mitsubishi Eclipse PHEV), buyers won’t get direct replacements from their respective brands. Mitsubishi is still years away from having a new BEV in Europe, Ford only has the most expensive Mustang Mach-E as a BEV, and Cupra’s Born is a regular sedan and the next Tavascan, Cupra’s version of the VW ID.4 formula, is will not land until 2024. These three models account for approximately 50,000 vehicle sales per year. Where will they go? Purgatory
In the brand ranking, Volkswagen (10.7%) consolidated its leading position, while Mercedes (10%) overtook BMW (9.1%) in the race for second place. With Volkswagen back in its natural position and Mercedes in #2, the plugin market is approaching the global market (#1 Volkswagen, #2 Mercedes, #3 Audi, #4 BMW).
Off the podium, Tesla (7.4%) retained the No. 4 position, but the No. 5 Audi (7.4%) is only 143 units behind. Below, the #6 Hyundai (6%) is too far behind to pose a threat.
Looking at the rankings by OEM, the ranking remained the same. The Volkswagen group (26.9%) has its domestic market well in hand. It is followed distantly by Stellantis (12.7%), while the No. 3 Mercedes (11.6%) has overtaken the No. 4 BMW Group (11%) and is now looking to reach the multinational conglomerate and the second place in 2022. Can Mercedes surpass Stellantis?
The #5 Hyundai-Kia collaboration (10%) is sheltered from the #6 Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance (8.1%).
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